Forrester Forecasts 2022 IT Shift: Chip Shortage, Edge Computing, and IoT Driving Sustainability and Security Trends

Forrester Research’s latest report underscores a pivotal convergence: the simultaneous expansion of IoT and edge computing is tightly coupled with rising federal mandates to curb emissions. As Abhijit Sunil, the report’s lead author, notes, “We cannot disassociate the advancements in IoT without talking about the effect on edge…they’re not distinct from each other.”

In 2022, sustainability‑focused services will elevate both IoT and edge to the forefront of corporate strategy. Environmental monitoring—tracking CO₂ levels, pollution, and air quality—alongside IoT systems that optimize water and power consumption, are set to become high‑priority use cases.

Sunil highlighted a significant corporate trend: a survey of Fortune 200 firms revealed that 58% had a chief sustainability officer in place by 2020, with many others appointing dedicated sustainability leaders. This shift makes it increasingly difficult to separate IoT and edge from a company’s green IT agenda.

While many discuss how IoT and edge shift technology beyond traditional IT control, Sunil reminds readers that CIOs remain the most positioned to drive these changes: “How can anyone influence an organization’s green IT strategy without understanding these emerging technologies?”

Chip Shortage Outlook

Forrester projects that the semiconductor shortage will likely persist until mid‑2023, causing price volatility and availability challenges across both business and consumer electronics. The shortage will disproportionately affect IoT, as silicon capacity is funneled into high‑end CPUs and GPUs, leaving microcontrollers and sensors for IoT devices short.

“IoT relies on intelligent devices equipped with chips for communication, storage, or computation. A chip shortage will ripple across all these markets,” Sunil explained.

5G or Satellite?

The report predicts that 5G’s dominance as the preferred next‑generation connectivity option—particularly in rural locales—could be challenged by low‑orbit satellite services. Deployment delays and high costs of 5G create an opening for alternatives like Starlink, which the analysis cites as “more promising than 5G in rural areas.” Wired network providers may even offer satellite internet as a backup, irrespective of their wireless offerings.

Anticipated DDoS Threat

Given IoT’s notorious security vulnerabilities, Forrester warns of a large‑scale DDoS attack orchestrated by an IoT botnet. The industry has already seen attacks hitting 17 million and 22 million requests‑per‑second last summer; the report forecasts a 30‑million rps attack in 2022, potentially crippling critical communications and inflicting significant economic damage.

Organizations are urged to reassess their DDoS defenses and develop robust mitigation strategies to safeguard essential services.

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