Satellite IoT 2026 Forecast: Security, Emerging Tech, and AI Insights

With predictions citing that the global subscriber base will reach more than 32 million by 2029, satellite IoT is rapidly shifting from early adoption to scaled deployment. Many industries, such as shipping, logistics, and agriculture, are driving this growth as they increasingly require greater connectivity than what traditional terrestrial coverage can provide, while navigating the issues their own industries face.

But growth often brings obstacles that need to be overcome. We surveyed 211 professionals across Europe working in satellite IoT across varying industries to compile the key trends that will shape the satellite IoT market this year and in the years ahead.

The most important factor in buying behaviour is security and resilience

In our survey, 45% of respondents cited security and resilience as the primary driver of changing satellite IoT buying behaviour in 2026. Geopolitical uncertainty and rising tensions have dramatically increased demand for secure and resilient connectivity when it comes to critical national infrastructure (CNI) monitoring, maritime operations, and remote industrial telemetry, where failure cannot be an option.

While satellite communications have advantages in global coverage and cyber resilience, it’s important to note that they are not immune to threats, as many industries become increasingly concerned about how their data will reach its destination without being compromised. The right mitigation strategies need to be in place, including encryption and redundancy, and when combined with cybersecurity awareness and culture, will enhance the security capabilities of satellite IoT connectivity. This will be a key market differentiator as we move into 2026.

Advanced tracking solutions, such as Assured Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (APNT) and quantum inertial navigation, will also become increasingly important, complementing flexible connectivity solutions when it comes to combating evolving threats related to drones and robotic technology. Jamming and spoofing attacks have driven redesigns of security blueprints, with APNT systems becoming a core security component.

See also: The Changing Role of IoT in the Age of Real Time

Next-generation satellite technology will drive increased diversity

Starting in 2026, higher-bandwidth modules, such as Iridium Messaging Transport (IMT), will see an increase in adoption rates, enabling larger payloads and more frequent updates for richer telemetry. This was also agreed by 45% of those we surveyed. Such high-bandwidth modules are often smaller, lighter, and more power-efficient, which strengthens their appeal, and we expect to see increased migration to these modules over time.

Rather than phasing out ‘legacy’ technologies any time soon, higher-bandwidth modules will add greater diversity for users, with airtime plans able to be further customised and tailored to their needs.

While established services will continue to play an important role, it is likely that a three-tier structure will begin to emerge over the next 12 months, leading to even more diverse use cases. The tiers will most likely look like this:

• Next-generation services – for example, Iridium Certus 100, Viasat IoT Nano
• Standards-based NTN services – such as Viasat NB-NTN and Iridium NTN Direct
• Current-generation services – including Iridium Short Burst Data

The immediate future will require combining services across tiers to meet specific needs. However, it is important that every company approaches the introduction of new technology carefully and with due consideration. A practical approach is to map applications by required message size, update frequency, power budget, and regulatory and security requirements, then select the correct tier to meet them.

See also: Report: Top IoT Use Cases Deliver Strong ROI

Amazon, Starlink, and other high-profile names will transform the market

Rapidly emerging competitive constellations from Amazon Kuiper, AST SpaceMobile, and SpaceX’s Starlink will drive down costs, presenting a real challenge to traditional GEO models. These new entrants are networks designed to deliver high-speed broadband at scale, targeting the consumer market – think connected vehicles and home internet. Four in ten (40%) of respondents highlighted new constellations entering the market as a major driving force next year.

While their direct relevance to IoT will likely remain limited for some time, their arrival is creating overcapacity in satellite broadband, increasing financial pressure across the entire sector. This market saturation is likely to intensify towards the end of 2026, as the industry undergoes a major reshaping.

These constellations may have a huge influence on the wider connectivity landscape, but they are not yet deployed optimally for IoT operations that require predictability, reliability, and truly global coverage. It is important that the industry continues to focus on its expertise in providing proven, specialised satellite services for IoT deployments, while keeping a close eye on how the market evolves.

The complexities of rolling out standards-based IoT become clearer

Technologies such as NTN NB-IoT allow devices to connect directly to satellites using a single SIM and existing cellular standards. This is resulting in significant reductions in engineering effort and hardware complexity. The result is that satellite connectivity becomes more accessible and simpler to deploy, as agreed by 35% of our peers.

The year ahead will see many regional trials of NTN NB-IoT take place, and the challenges of developing and rolling out this standards-based technology will become clearer. The hype will likely die down next year, making way for deeper, more focused engineering work to address these challenges.

One thing is clear: next year will be an important step in shaping how quickly and in which areas standards-based IoT gains traction moving forward.

AI will transform how data is understood and used

AI is cementing itself as a key differentiator in the IoT market, and next year will only see this accelerate – particularly as the arms race shifts towards how organisations extract the highest value from IoT data. Simply collecting telemetry is no longer enough; companies must now deliver smarter analytics, predictive capabilities, and autonomous decision-making to remain competitive and provide greater value to their customers.

Nearly a quarter (24%) of satellite IoT professionals said they expect to see AI having a short-term influence, though its importance is expected to grow.

I expect AI to drive forward many evolutions in IoT data insights. Firstly, the quality of data will matter more than ever next year and beyond. Basic, flat reports will no longer suffice. Instead, far richer contextual data and AI-enabled, actionable recommendations will be required.

Secondly, IoT system architecture will become more strategic, with increased investment across edge compute, data pipelines, telemetry frameworks, and orchestration layers.

Thirdly, IoT data will become a competitive battleground. As more organisations adopt AI, those that own higher-quality datasets and operate more sophisticated connectivity models capable of producing rich data will lead the pack.

Overall, the deployment and business case for AI will evolve again next year in line with market demands. But where there is challenge, there is opportunity – and those who embrace it will be best placed to capitalise.

2026: The evolution of satellite IoT ramps up

The satellite IoT industry must brace itself for the significant changes it will face this year. Such transformations are set to be driven by external forces, such as political developments and conflicts, new market entrants, and major technological advancements.

In response, satellite IoT players should focus on resilience rather than pursuing ambitious growth plans, placing emphasis on core strengths and embracing diversity in connectivity solutions. Avoiding reactive decision-making will be crucial, alongside continuing to build strong data foundations.

The real winners in 2026, and further down the line, will be those who treat resilience, migration planning, and data discipline as strategic priorities, not engineering afterthoughts.