2021–2022 Resin Market Outlook: Mixed Pricing Trends for Volume Resins

The end of 2021 marked a shift toward a buyers’ market for polyolefins and, to a lesser extent, polystyrene (PS), while PVC, PET, ABS, PC, and nylons 6 and 66 continued to operate as a seller’s market. The primary driver for polyolefin and PS pricing remained an oversupply relative to demand. For the remaining volume resins, upward price pressures were largely driven by higher feedstock and energy costs, shortages of additives and reinforcements, and ongoing supply‑chain disruptions.

These observations come from purchasing consultants at Resin Technology, Inc. (RTi), senior editors of PetroChemWire (PCW), and Michael Greenberg, CEO of The Plastics Exchange.

PE Prices Decline

Polyethylene (PE) is projected to drop by another $0.05/lb in November after a similar decline in October. A further $0.05/lb reduction is anticipated for December, according to Mike Burns, RTi’s VP of PE markets, PCW’s senior editor David Barry, and Greenberg of The Plastics Exchange. Total price gains for 2021 through November stood at $0.36 to $0.38/lb.

Burns predicts a potential additional $0.10/lb fall in the first quarter, resulting in a cumulative correction of $0.20 to $0.25/lb. He notes that the market has flipped from the past few years: inventories are at record highs, new capacity is expected to increase supply, and exports have weakened due to logistical constraints. “Truck driver shortages in Texas are jeopardizing year‑end export volumes, and freight rates to Latin America have doubled in some regions,” Burns adds. Domestic PE demand, however, is expected to remain robust through the first half of the year, driven by U.S. processors producing basic items such as plastic bags and cutlery as imports decline under high freight costs.

PCW’s Barry observes that spot PE prices continued to trend lower in the last week of November as producer inventories grew and buyers worked to reduce finished‑goods and resin stockpiles. “Processors are still citing labor and trucking issues as major operational constraints, yet overall resin demand remains healthy. Some plastic film and bag producers still face order backlogs at least twice as long as normal,” he reports.

Greenberg reports that spot HDPE availability remained tight following a force‑majeure event in Texas earlier in November, with a handful of allocation programs still active. However, with operating rates improving and new capacity coming online, he expects availability to widen further.

PP Prices Decline

Polypropylene (PP) prices are expected to mirror propylene monomer falls of $0.08 to $0.10/lb in November, plus an additional $0.04 to $0.05/lb “supplier margin give‑back,” according to Scott Newell, RTi’s VP of PP markets, PCW’s Barry, and Greenberg. December is projected to see a similar decline, with another $0.04 to $0.05/lb margin trim. In the new year, monomer prices should stabilize, PP demand may rebound, and scheduled refinery shutdowns are likely to limit monomer production.

Newell explains that the fourth‑quarter outlook was bearish: supplier inventories were record high despite throttling back production to 84.5% capacity, and PP imports were at historic levels while demand had cooled. The drop in monomer prices largely reflects a slowdown in PP demand.

Barry notes that spot PP was selling $0.20 to $0.25/lb below contract prices. From late 2020 through 2021, PP suppliers had expanded margins by $0.30 to $0.40/lb.

Greenberg describes the spot market as limited but improving supply. He expects another $0.09 to $0.10/lb drop in November–December. “Producer inventories entering November were historically high, but the Houston spot market is not yet flooded,” he says. “Buyers are trimming their own inventories while knowing producers and traders are well stocked, shifting the market from tight to average processor inventories and shorter lead times.”

PS Prices Hold Steady to Slightly Lower

Polystyrene (PS) is projected to remain flat in November and December, with potential relief in the month. RTi’s VP of PE, PS, and nylon 6 markets Robin Chesshier and PCW’s Barry point to slowed seasonal demand and significant feedstock cost reductions—benzene fell $1/gal and styrene monomer fell 20¢/lb by October—as reasons for PS prices to ease. They urge processors to aggressively seek price concessions.

Barry reports that PS spot prices were trending flat to lower as feedstock costs eased in late November. The implied styrene cost, based on a 30/70 ethylene/benzene ratio, was $0.41/lb, down 9¢ from mid‑November but up 2¢ from mid‑October. Supply remains balanced; operating rates are in the low‑to‑mid 70% range. Shortages of polybutadiene rubber continue to limit HIPS production. High overseas freight costs have made imports less competitive, supporting strong financial results for PS producers this year, with margins well above forecast.

PVC Prices Rise

PVC prices climbed $0.05/lb in November as suppliers fully implemented their hikes, citing a recovery from unplanned outages in September. RTi’s VP of PVC and engineering resins Mark Kallman and PCW senior editor Donna Todd anticipate flat prices in December and January, noting improved supply and sustained strong demand. “The market remains tightly balanced. While overall demand fell this year due to reduced exports from supply constraints, domestic demand is up more than 10%,” Kallman states.

Todd reports that several processors viewed the price increase as a producer tactic to prevent price declines rather than a genuine attempt to raise prices, especially after consistent monthly hikes in 2021 (except July and October).

PET Prices Edge Higher

PET prices are expected to rise another $0.015 to $0.02/lb in November following a $0.015/lb increase in October, driven primarily by higher MEG feedstock prices, according to Kallman. He forecasts a $0.02 to $0.03/lb drop in December as MEG supplies improve. Kallman sees potential for suppliers to regain lost ground amid higher energy costs and a PET demand rebound from Asia.

Domestic PET supply appears better balanced as MEG and other key feedstocks return to normal production levels. Domestic demand for PET packaging remains high as consumers and retail stores restock. Sustained high import volumes bridge the demand gap despite high freight costs, which are expected to fall in January.

ABS Prices Increase, Then Stabilize

ABS prices rose $0.08/lb in September, with suppliers targeting an additional $0.05/lb hike for October–November, according to RTi’s Kallman. He projects flat prices in December and January due to lower feedstock costs and improved supplies. “Supply was still very tight in Q4 as production lines returned after force‑majeure actions,” Kallman explains. “ABS imports remain crucial in bridging the supply‑demand gap.”

PC Prices Continue to Rise

Polycarbonate (PC) prices increased $0.11 to $0.15/lb in September–October, averaging $0.40/lb in the first half of 2021. Suppliers announced an additional $0.10/lb hike due to ongoing shortages of pigments, additives (e.g., flame retardants), and glass reinforcements. Kallman expects these price hikes to take effect in December–January.

Nylon 6 and 66 Prices Increase

In November, nylon 6 prices rose as suppliers sought increases of $0.05 to $0.23/lb. Prices had already climbed $0.60/lb in the first half of 2021 due to feedstock and supply issues. Suppliers attribute the new price moves to higher energy costs and supply‑chain disruptions, per RTi’s Chesshier. She notes that most processors are seeing $0.05 to $0.09/lb increases and projects largely flat pricing for December and January. Market pushback is significant, as suppliers had not conceded during periods of historically low energy prices.

Nylon 66 prices are rising in the double‑digit range at year‑end, after gaining $0.29 to $0.40/lb in the first half of 2021. Additives such as flame retardants and glass fiber are the primary cost drivers. Kallman reports that some suppliers are seeking hikes of up to $0.25/lb for compounds requiring these ingredients. “While nylon 66 is a tightly balanced market, it is improving as major suppliers lift force‑majeure actions,” he says. Demand remains strong, though automotive demand has dialed back due to semiconductor shortages, with improvement expected by mid‑2022.