Polypropylene Prices Surge 33¢/lb Amid Gulf Coast Storm‑Induced Supply Shock

After the unprecedented mid‑February winter storm that battered the Gulf Coast, key feedstock and resin production plummeted by 80–85%. The resulting supply shock sent volume‑commodity resin prices soaring. With limited public information on plant recoveries, market participants quickly concluded that demand was outpacing supply—except for polystyrene, which remained less affected. The spike was most pronounced in polypropylene (PP), where prices jumped 33¢/lb.

Below, senior analysts from Resin Technology, Inc. (RTi), PetroChemWire (PCW), and The Plastics Exchange distill the latest market dynamics and price outlooks for each resin class.

PE Prices Surge 7¢/lb in February, 7¢/lb in March

Polyethylene (PE) saw a 7¢/lb increase in February, followed by an identical 7¢/lb hike in March—both moves were largely anticipated by Mike Burns, RTi’s VP of PE markets; PCW senior editor David Barry; and The Plastics Exchange’s Michael Greenberg. Burns highlights strong demand through Q2 and sustained oil price momentum as drivers of further potential increases or surcharges until inventories normalize to November 2020 levels.

Barry projects April prices could flatten if demand holds steady. He notes that exports—normally 40% of production—may recede for several months, leaving domestic customers with allocations up to 50% and spot buyers paying premium rates.

Greenberg underscores the challenges of sourcing blow‑molding HDPE, a Gulf‑produced commodity. In February, HDPE prices rose 26¢/lb, and since the start of the year they have climbed 42¢/lb. High‑flow LDPE and LLDPE resins for color, compounding, and injection molding are also scarce, with limited new offers emerging in recent weeks. Spot ethylene surged to 51.5¢/lb, the highest since 2014.

PP Prices Explode 33¢/lb in February, 6¢/lb Margin Expansion in March

PP prices leapt 28¢/lb in February, driven by 88.5¢/lb propylene monomer contracts and a 5¢/lb supplier margin increase. Analysts predict an additional double‑digit increase in March, with suppliers already declaring a 6¢/lb margin expansion for the month. The primary catalyst is constrained propylene supply, a consequence of low refinery rates, reduced propylene by‑product generation, and ongoing maintenance on PDH units.

Scott Newell, RTi’s VP of PP markets, expects most plants to resume by mid‑March. He warns that a sharp market correction—potentially a 30–40¢/lb drop in April—could occur quickly. Processors are evaluating shutdowns of non‑profitable lines and force‑majeure actions, citing the $150,000 per railcar cost premium for PP compared to a year ago.

Barry notes that the high PP price trend began before the storm and may intensify as lower‑priced imports enter the market. Domestic PP prices are deemed unsustainable for commodity‑grade products such as storage containers and packaging, while automotive and non‑woven fiber demand remains robust. Supply recovery is projected to take two to three months, though monomer availability may lag.

Greenberg remarks that volatility has escalated: where prices typically move in penny increments, now nickel and dime swings are commonplace. Spot PP is extremely tight, with clarified random copolymer in highest demand. Each subsequent offering commands a higher price.

PS Prices Rise 2¢/lb in February, Forecasted 8–9¢/lb Increase in March & April

Polystyrene (PS) climbed 2¢/lb in February after a 5¢/lb increase in January, reflecting tight supply and steady demand. At least one supplier reported an 11¢/lb jump in March; others are expected to follow suit. The storm shut down benzene, ethylene, and styrene monomer production, driving feedstock prices up: benzene +20¢/gal, ethylene +10¢/lb, resulting in a 10¢/lb surge in spot monomer prices. The implied styrene cost, based on a 30/70 ethylene/benzene ratio, rose to 32.128¢/lb—up 7¢/lb in one week. No spot availability of HIPS or GPPS was reported.

Both sources anticipate PS prices will rise in March and April, with feedstock cost increases translating to an 8–9¢/lb production premium. April also marks the peak demand season for PS. Demand is unlikely to outpace supply; only one PS plant is under construction in Asia, catering primarily to the appliance sector, not low‑end commodity markets.

PVC Prices Up 3¢/lb in February, 7¢/lb in March; Potential 2–4¢/lb Increase in April

PVC prices increased 3¢/lb in February after a 4¢/lb rise in January. In March, suppliers announced a 7¢/lb hike, fully implemented. Mark Kallman, RTi’s VP of PVC and engineering resins, and PCW senior editor Donna Todd attribute this to pre‑storm outages and strong production through January and early February. They expect April prices to remain flat but acknowledge a possible 2–4¢/lb uptick.

Todd also predicts a continued rise in prices throughout Q2, rather than a retreat, noting that 80–85% of PVC capacity was lost during the storm and is only partially restored.

PET Prices at 70¢/lb in March, Forecast 5¢/lb Increase

At the beginning of March, PET prices reached 70¢/lb for railcars delivered to the U.S. South and Midwest, up 4¢/lb from late February. Rising prices are linked to tight supply, with shortages from Mexican producers and a 4.5¢/lb surcharge imposed by a major U.S. producer. Mid‑February disruptions to Texas PET feedstock plants heightened March demand. Xavier Cronin, PCW senior editor, projects another 5¢/lb rise in March, while demand from bottles and containers remains strong due to COVID‑19‑driven bottled‑water demand and the February Texas water outage.

ABS Prices Rise 7¢/lb in Early January, 5–10¢/lb Increase Forecasted for March & April

ABS saw a 7¢/lb jump in early January, with an additional 7¢/lb increase in February, according to RTi’s Kallman. He expects March and April prices to rise another 5–10¢/lb, driven by higher feedstock costs (benzene, acrylonitrile, butadiene, and styrene monomer) stemming from production outages.

PC Prices Up 9–10¢/lb in Early January, 10¢/lb Increase in February, Lead Times 14–22 Weeks

Polycarbonate (PC) prices rose 9–10¢/lb in early January. Suppliers announced a 10¢/lb increase for February, fully implemented in March. RTi’s Kallman notes lead times have surged to 14–22 weeks due to feedstock and resin production disruptions. Two PC suppliers are invoking force‑majeure, while escalating benzene and propylene costs may trigger another double‑digit increase in the March‑April window. Processors face supply constraints, and low‑cost imports are no longer viable. Market recovery may emerge in May if operations resume.

Nylon 6 & 66 Prices Increase, Further Hikes Expected in April

Nylon 6 prices climbed 15¢/lb in January–February following late‑quarter increases, reflecting higher feedstock prices and robust demand from automotive and textile sectors. Due to the Gulf Coast storm, which shut down feedstock and resin plants, further price increases in April are possible as demand outpaces supply.

Nylon 66 prices rose 14–20¢/lb by the end of February, with March‑April expectations of at least 10¢/lb additional increases. Continued strong demand from automotive and construction, coupled with lead times of 15–20 weeks after the weather‑related shutdowns, underpins this outlook.

Overall, the Gulf Coast winter storm has amplified supply constraints across the resin market, driving significant price spikes—most notably a 33¢/lb jump in PP—while demand remains resilient in key sectors.