End‑Year Commodity Resin Prices Mixed: PE Flat, PP Steady, PVC Up, PET Dipped

Across the five high‑volume commodity resins, prices moved higher through the third quarter, driven by a mix of planned and unplanned plant outages, rising feedstock costs, and strong end‑use demand. As 2021 closes, the upward trend has flattened, with prospects of modest declines for polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) as supplier inventories recover, feedstock costs ease, and demand moderates. With better inventory positioning, processors are poised to negotiate more favorable 2021 contracts.

The following analysis reflects the perspectives of purchasing consultants at Resin Technology, Inc. (RTi), senior editors from PetroChemWire (PCW), and CEO Michael Greenberg of the Plastics Exchange.

PE Prices Flat

Polyethylene (PE) prices settled unchanged in October, despite a proposed 5¢/lb increase that would have marked a fifth consecutive rise and lifted the year‑to‑date increment to 24¢/lb. The 19¢/lb of cumulative price hikes to date stemmed from constrained inventories caused by both planned and unplanned outages, coupled with robust demand. PCW senior editor David Barry notes that while November’s 5¢/lb nomination did not materialize, most buyers are not alarmed by the potential rise.

RTi’s Mike Burns cautions that year‑end price cuts are unlikely, given the tight supply picture, but signals—such as new capacity—could provide processors with leverage in 2021 contract negotiations. He also anticipates a rebound in North American export volumes, restoring the typical 40% market share as inventories recover.

In early November, PCW reported a dip in spot PE prices as suppliers rebalance inventory, with export offers to China rising 10‑20% and further liquidity expected later in the month. Domestic demand remains robust, especially for consumer packaging that has benefited from the pandemic‑era surge.

PP Prices Flat to Lower

Polypropylene (PP) prices increased by 0.5¢/lb in October, aligning with propylene monomer pricing. No 3¢/lb non‑monomer price hikes materialized, according to RTi, PCW, and Plastics Exchange. Some suppliers are proactively pricing contracts more aggressively to secure 2021 volumes, yet global competition keeps domestic PP rates from outpacing imports.

RTi’s Scott Newell forecasts a potential decline in PP prices by late November, linking movements solely to monomer costs. He highlights a gradual return to normalcy after the tight market created by plant outages, noting that price hikes in October were situational rather than fundamental.

Plastics Exchange CEO Michael Greenberg observes that while PP trading remains strong, it has slowed relative to the peak demand seen in October. Buyers are increasingly turning to imports to offset domestic shortages, with deliveries projected through year‑end.

PCW’s Barry reports spot PP prices largely unchanged, though a slight loosening has emerged in the wide‑spec market. Import volumes surged 50% in September to 64.3 million lb, the highest since March, with Singapore and South Korea as major contributors.

PS Prices Flat to Higher

Polystyrene (PS) prices held steady in October, but a 2¢/lb hike for November was announced, driven by higher benzene and styrene monomer costs. RTi’s Robin Chesshier and PCW’s Barry attribute the increase to tighter monomer supply, which pushed the U.S. Gulf styrene spot price to 38.3¢/lb—a 7.5¢/lb jump. Benzene and ethylene costs also spiked.

Chesshier suggests a 2‑3¢/lb correction may occur as PS demand does not grow rapidly, facing regulatory constraints and competition from PET and PP in packaging. Nonetheless, demand in appliances and automotive is strengthening, potentially supporting prices.

PVC Prices Up

PVC prices rose 12¢/lb from September to October, attributed to storm‑related force‑majeure disruptions and strong global demand. Both RTi’s Mark Kallman and PCW’s Donna Todd see November prices as flat or slightly declining. Supplier inventories fell from 10 days or more to under seven days, yet construction demand remains strong.

Kallman anticipates improved operating rates by year‑end, with capacity recovering from outages. He expects both inventory rebuilding and robust demand to give processors leverage in 2021 contract negotiations.

PET Prices Up, Then Down

PET contracts ended October at 50¢/lb, up 4¢, reflecting a surcharge linked to increased feedstock costs and storm‑related outages. PCW’s Xavier Cronin predicts a modest decline in domestically produced PET spot prices by mid‑November, driven by seasonal demand dip for soft drinks and water, and the abundance of imported PET from 50+ countries at mid‑40¢/lb prices.

Despite the slowdown, PET demand for bottles, containers, and packaging remains robust, bolstered by COVID‑19‑related needs such as bottled water for emergency workers and strapping tape for medical supply shipping.